The overnight assault was one of the heaviest in months. Ukrainian air defence intercepted 72 drones, but more than 70 struck their targets, energy facilities, homes, the familiar pattern of Putin’s war. Striking civilian infrastructure. Alongside them came Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S-300s, repurposed from their original air defence role into crude bombardment weapons. It followed another round of speculation about ceasefires, about a deal that might satisfy all parties. But Putin has no interest in compromise. Every supposed pause is merely preparation for the next offensive. His war economy is set to sustain this conflict indefinitely.
In Britain, where the war is fought at the level of budget lines, Rachel Reeves is finalising her Spring Statement. Defence spending is going up to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with an eventual target of 3% but the means of funding it are familiar. The international aid budget will shrink again. Tax thresholds will stay frozen, dragging more people into higher bands. Cuts to public services are expected, though the details remain vague. A new “patriot tax” has been floated, though no one has yet dared to commit to it. Austerity, rebranded.
This is not rearmament as it was once understood. The last time Britain set itself to military expansion, it was with a state that could plan, build, and sustain both an army and a welfare state. The Cold War balance—guns, butter, nuclear submarines and council houses—has been broken. There will be weapons, but no real industrial policy, no strategic economy, no investment in the state’s capacity beyond its ability to wage war.
Putin is watching. He sees a Britain that still expects the market to provide, that assumes weapons can be bought when needed, that economic resilience is an expensive distraction. He knows how this ends. If Western governments continue in this direction, if they insist on funding war through domestic decline, he can wait. Eventually, the money will run out.
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