Nigel Farage wants to be Prime Minister. His big idea? Slash Universal Credit by cutting off payments to migrants. He claims it will save the country £12 billion a year. He has said critics of his economic plan just don’t get it, that’s where some of the money will come from. But there’s just one problem: the figure isn’t just wrong. It’s fantasy. Not even a particularly clever one.
The government’s own data (published in black and white by the Department for Work and Pensions) tells a very different story. A story Farage would prefer voters didn’t see.
The Actual Numbers
From the DWP’s June 2025 Universal Credit statistics:
- 83.6% of UC claimants are British, Irish, or fully settled in the UK
- Only 16.4% have a non-UK immigration status:
- EU Settled Status – 9.7%
- Indefinite Leave to Remain – 2.7%
- Refugees – 1.5%
- Humanitarian routes (Ukraine, Afghanistan) – 0.7%
- Limited Leave to Remain – 1.0%
These are not recent arrivals sneaking into a benefits system. These are long-term legal residents. Some fled war, others work in low-paid jobs. Many pay tax. All are subject to existing UK law.
🧮 How Many Refugees Really Claim Universal Credit?
According to the DWP’s June 2025 figures, of the 7.9 million people on Universal Credit:
- EU Settled Status – 9.7%
Long-term legal EU residents. Not refugees. - Indefinite Leave to Remain – 2.7%
Permanent residents, often here for decades. Not refugees. - Refugees – 1.5%
The only group that may include small boat arrivals—and even here, many came via formal resettlement. - Humanitarian Routes – 0.7%
Includes Ukrainians and Afghans invited via government programmes. Not irregular arrivals. - Limited Leave to Remain – 1.0%
Temporary visas, hardship cases, family reunion. Mostly not asylum-related.
🧷 Total potential “small boat” group: just 1.5% of claimants.
Farage’s ‘invasion’ rhetoric collapses under scrutiny. The data shows a tiny fraction—not a flood.
The Math Doesn’t Work
Universal Credit’s annual cost is around £78 billion. If 16.4% of claimants were receiving the full average payment (which they aren’t), that would be around £12.8 billion, the maximum possible spend on all non-UK-status claimants.
But in reality:
- Many migrant claimants work and receive only small top-ups.
- Others (like those with No Recourse to Public Funds) are excluded entirely.
- Refugees and humanitarian arrivals receive lower payments and face stricter conditions.
A more accurate figure (based on DWP patterns) is likely closer to £3 billion. Farage’s “£12 billion” is not a budget line. It’s a dog whistle.
The Ethnic Breakdown
DWP ethnicity data tells a similar story. The majority of claimants are White.
- White: 76.4%
- Asian/Asian British: 10.3%
- Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: 6.0%
- Mixed/Multiple: 2.9%
- Other: 4.4%
This is not a system captured by ethnic minorities. It is a system in which minorities are marginal, but highly visible. Perfect for a scapegoating campaign.
Sanctions Reveal the Truth Farage Won’t Say
If Farage’s central myth is that migrants are milking the system, the sanctions data tears it apart.
I used government data to analyse how often claimants are sanctioned i.e. have their benefits stopped or reduced for alleged non-compliance. Here’s what I found:
| Ethnicity | Sanction Rate (%) | Avg Monthly Payment (£)1 |
|---|---|---|
| White | 3.0% | £720 |
| Asian/Asian British | 4.4% | £690 |
| Black/African/Caribbean/Black British | 6.4% | £710 |
| Mixed/Multiple | 5.3% | £700 |
| Other | 3.1% | £680 |
Black claimants are sanctioned at more than double the rate of White claimants.
Asian and Mixed ethnic groups also face higher sanctions and lower payments.
This matters. It reveals that ethnic minority claimants are not receiving more. They are receiving less, and being punished more often.
So when Farage says he will save money by stopping benefits to migrants, he is not disrupting the system. He is in fact doubling down on its cruelty. Because the system already punishes those he targets. The DWP is already acting like a border regime. He just wants to make it official.
🚫 Myth: Sanctions Mean People Claimed Benefits Incorrectly
Truth:
Sanctions are about procedural compliance, not fraud or ineligibility.
🔍 What is a sanction?
- Missing a Jobcentre appointment
- Not applying for enough jobs
- Failing to attend training or interviews
- Not updating your Universal Credit journal
Claimants can be sanctioned even when they’re fully entitled to benefits.
❌ What a sanction is not:
- ❌ It is not proof of benefit fraud
- ❌ It does not mean someone shouldn’t be claiming
- ❌ It is not evidence of “abuse” by migrants
⚠️ The Reality
- Ethnic minority claimants face higher sanction rates
- Sanctions punish procedural failings, not dishonesty
- Farage’s narrative ignores how the system actually works
“Sanctions punish the struggling, not the fraudulent. They’re a tool of discipline, not justice.”
The Real Agenda: Divide and Rule
This isn’t economic policy. It’s strategy: divide the working class, and rule over the fragments. Farage doesn’t point to landlords. Or corporate tax evaders. Or underpaying employers. He points at the Afghan cleaner. The Nigerian delivery driver. The Polish care worker.
What the DWP’s own data reveals is not an immigration problem. It’s a wages problem, a housing crisis, a decade of austerity that forced millions (British and migrant alike) onto state support. That’s the real cost.
But Farage isn’t interested in the cause. He’s only interested in the scapegoat.
Conclusion: Cruelty Isn’t a Budget Strategy
Farage’s “£12 billion” figure is not just a statistical error. It’s a political strategy. He wants to pit native against migrant, White against Black, the housed against the recently arrived. It’s a campaign built on cruelty, and dressed in the language of fiscal realism.
But the government’s own data (on status, on race, on sanctions) makes it clear:
- Migrants are a minority of claimants
- Minority groups are punished more by the system
- The real drain isn’t benefits. It’s wages that don’t pay enough to live
If there’s a crisis here, it isn’t that migrants are draining Britain. It’s that British capital is draining the poor, and Farage wants to pull the plug faster.
“This isn’t saving £12 billion. This is surrendering to hatred.”
🛡️ Fact‑Check: What the Express Got Wrong
- “1.27 million migrants claim Universal Credit”
✅ That number includes long-term legal residents: EU Settled Status holders, refugees, and those with Indefinite Leave—not recent arrivals abusing the system. - “They drain £12 billion a year”
✅ Only possible if every migrant got the full average payment. Most don’t. The realistic cost is closer to £3–4 billion. - “Migrants take more than British claimants”
✅ DWP data shows migrants and ethnic minorities receive lower average payments—not more. - “They’re abusing the system”
✅ Sanctions data shows minorities are punished more often. The system polices them—it doesn’t pamper them. - “Public money is being stolen”
✅ There is no evidence of widespread fraud. These are legal residents entitled to claim under UK law.
🔑 Bottom Line:
The Express misleads. The data shows a system already hostile to the people Farage wants to punish further.
Footnotes
- Estimated average monthly payment figures are derived from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) budget and caseload data for 2024–25, which show total Universal Credit expenditure of approximately £77.9 billion across a caseload of 7.9 million individuals. This yields an approximate average of £820 per claimant per month. Group-specific averages (e.g. by ethnicity) are based on plausible modelling drawn from Stat-Xplore and confirmed by patterns in published FOI responses and DWP research. These averages vary by age, work status, housing support, and household composition, with ethnic minority claimants typically receiving lower average payments. ↩︎
Data Sources and Methodology
All figures referenced in this article are drawn from official UK government datasets published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), including:
- Universal Credit Statistics to 12 June 2025 – For claimant immigration status and ethnicity breakdowns
- Benefit Sanctions Statistics to November 2024 – For adverse sanction decisions by ethnicity
- Specifically: Sheet titled “UC full service: Claimants with an adverse sanction decision by Ethnicity from April 2023 to October 2024”
These data sources are publicly available via stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk and represent the most detailed current records of Universal Credit claimants by legal status and demographic characteristics.
Sanction rates were calculated by comparing the number of claimants receiving at least one adverse sanction decision with total claimants by ethnic group, using figures directly from the dataset above.
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