Anti Capitalist Musing

The Allure of Conspiracy: Why Conspiracy Theories Persist

July 13, 2023

Conspiracy theories have proliferated from the fringes to the mainstream, shaped by societal drivers like simplified narratives, confirmation bias, and changes in media. This post explores the roots of 'conspiracism' and paths back to reason.

Understanding Conspiracy Theory Proliferation in the Digital Age

Conspiracy theories like ‘QAnon’, ‘Stop the Steal’, and ‘Pizzagate’ in the US and the anti vax movement, and the furore over 15 minute cities in the UK have exploded from obscure online fringes into mainstream discourse. What societal shifts explain this mounting embrace of reality-detached conspiratorial thinking? Evidence from many different fields suggests that some possible causes are our desire for simple explanations, the confirmation of partisan biases, the loss of trust in institutions, changes in media ecosystems, and the use of cognitive limitations. However, concrete solutions exist to restore reason and civic discourse in this post-truth era.

The False Allure of Simplistic Conspiracy Narratives

Social psychologists find people are drawn to conspiracy theories because they promise easy explanations for complex events, often splitting the world into hero/villain binaries (Uscinski et al., 2020). Conspiracies ascribe history’s messy unfolding to sinister cabals, affording a feeling of order. Antisemitic and racist conspiracies also provide convenient minority scapegoats for societal problems, redirecting anger from real power structures. Furthermore, economist Edward Glaeser (2005) notes that conspiracies thrive during periods of rapid social change by offering comprehension of transforming realities that defy older explanations. The modern pace of technology-driven cultural disruption thus creates demand for the clarity of conspiracy—but this coherence remains fictitious.

“Conspiracies ascribe history’s messy unfolding to sinister cabals, affording a feeling of order.”

Confirming Prior Biases

Media scholars also find conspiracy theories frequently flourish by conforming to audiences’ pre-existing worldviews and identities (Miller et al., 2016). Outlandish claims, from birtherism to Stop the Steal, get accepted based not on evidence but on resonance with partisan loyalties and internal biases. This conflation of conspiratorial fabulists with identity contributes to belief insulation within ideological echo chambers. Political scientists John Eberhardt and Neil Gross (2020) equally observe that individuals’ conspiratorial predispositions, driven by factors like desire for uniqueness or powerlessness, make them prone to seek out confirming theories. Rather than arising from facts, today’s spiralling conspiracies’ emerges from who it appeals to psychologically and socially.

Institutional Distrust Fuelling Anti-Authority Sentiment

Sociologists note conspiracy charges flourish during periods of declining public trust, particularly when governments, media, science, and corporations are widely perceived as corrupt, threatening, or untruthful (Einstein & Glick, 2015). Populists adeptly leverage and exacerbate this anti-elite institutional distrust to station themselves as lone truth-tellers, augmenting susceptibility to their conspiracies. Political scientist Nancy Rosenblum (2019) argues such demagogic fabrication of imagined globalist, scientific, or deep state villainy builds political capital but corrodes democracies reliant on credible knowledge production. When detachment from factual reality becomes a point of pride rather than concern, conspiracies gain a cultural foothold.

“When detachment from factual reality becomes a point of pride rather than concern, conspiracies gain a cultural foothold.”

The Role of New Media Ecosystems and Algorithms

While conspiracy theories have always existed, digital media has uniquely multiplied their vectors of dissemination. Media studies scholar John Sullivan (2021) highlights how closed, algorithmically driven social media environments provide forums ideal for hatching conspiracies and incentivise engagement with increasingly extreme content. Sharing rates, not accuracy, drive visibility. Computational propaganda researchers have also found troll networks deliberately amplify far-fetched theories like QAnon for disruption (Tuters et al., 2018). Without exposure to alternate views, these self-reinforcing online dynamics fuel rabbit holes.

Psychological Factors and Cognitive Biases

Psychology identifies factors of human cognition that make us prone to conspiratorial ideation, like proportionality bias and our tendency to seek patterns (Brotherton & Eser, 2015). When faced with impactful events like a pandemic or insurrection, people often assume causes of equal scale rather than incremental explanations. We also latch onto perceived patterns, even erroneous ones, to feel in control. Cognitive scientists Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber (2017) argue our reasoning evolved more for winning arguments than pursuing truth. In online contexts optimised to confirm biases, these quirks become easily exploited.

Case Study: Conspiracy Culture in the UK

While the above drivers are universal, local contexts shape conspiracism. In the UK, conspiracy charges against immigrants, Muslims, Jews, and minorities reflect lingering xenophobia and ethnic nationalism (Uscinski et al., 2016). Fears of losing traditional identity drive some towards theories blaming outsiders. Concerns over UK sovereignty and decline also underpin conspiracies involving EU power grabs, foreign infiltration, and stolen sovereignty. Globally, British demagogues like Nigel Farage stoke conspiracies towards political ends (Reynolds, 2020). Overall, British conspiracism manifests confluences of anti-immigrant xenophobia, nationalism, and anti-establishment disaffection.

The Anti-Vaccine Movement Case Study

Modern anti-vaccine conspiracies also illustrate how digital media can fuel biased cherry-picking. Despite scientific consensus on vaccine safety, anti-vaxxers circulate debunked autism links as “proof” of danger (Smith & Graham, 2019). They portray a Big Pharma plot to hide inoculations’ harms for profit. This fact-resistant narrative resonates by confirming anti-authority worldviews and parental protectiveness, flourishing online by exploiting cognitive biases and algorithmic reinforcement within social media echo chambers (Sismondo, 2021). Here, conspiracies threaten public health directly. In the UK context, anti-vax sentiment has taken hold in factions of the Conservative Party, with MP Andrew Bridgen expelled for promoting COVID-19 and vaccine misinformation (Walker, 2023).

The Rise of GB News and Normalising Conspiracism

In the UK, the new populist media outlet GB News has provided a prominent platform to legitimise and propagate a wide range of fringe conspiracy theories to mainstream audiences. Presenters like Nigel Farage have regularly reinforced COVID-19 misinformation and anti-vaccine conspiracy narratives, spreading false claims about vaccine dangers and casting doubt on scientific consensus (O’Carroll, 2022). Other hosts like Neil Oliver have openly promoted bizarre conspiracies, including Bill Gates use of vaccines for mass sterilisation, comparing such claims to Nazi-style propaganda.

Regulator Ofcom has fined GB News tens of thousands of pounds on multiple occasions for airing damaging misinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic amid growing concerns it has normalised airing conspiracy theories lacking a factual basis (Ofcom, 2023). As Guardian columnist Zoe Williams (2023) summarised in a detailed analysis, figures like Farage, Oliver, and other partisan GB News hosts have established a pattern of engaging in conspiracy theorising without evidence. Examples include climate crisis denial, Soros-related antisemitic conspiracies, exaggerated claims of ‘wokeism’, and fabricated threats of multiculturalism destroying British identity.

Experts warn that GB News has used its public platform to make once-taboo fringe conspiracies palatable to mass audiences while dodging accountability through token disclaimers. Its business model appears to rely on generating outrage and confirmation bias, providing unequivocal boosts to conspiracy content lacking veracity. GB News’ rise demonstrates how new partisan media outlets can exploit public distrust in institutions and social divides by propagating radicalising conspiracies linked to populist agendas. With its conspiracy laundering, GB News exemplifies the modern danger of alternative media ecosystems untethered from truth while claiming the mantle of giving voice to the ignored (silent majority) masses.

“GB News has used its public platform to make once-taboo fringe conspiracies palatable to mass audiences while dodging accountability.”

Restoring Reason through Media Literacy and Transparency

Stemming this trend’s damage requires multifaceted solutions. Social media platforms must enhance transparency around recommendations and bots while consciously designing for healthier discourse, even at the cost of engagement (Volkova & Bell, 2017). Civics education focused on strengthening media literacy, analytic skills, and resistance to manipulation must start early and continue throughout life. Credible journalistic institutions need funding security to rebuild public trust. Most critically, politics prioritising economic and social empowerment over divisive cultural issues could reduce conspiratorial refuge-seeking. Conspiracy theorists may never disappear entirely from open societies, but environments that nurture critical thought over reflexive confirmation can mitigate harmful impacts. The road to restoring reason lies in reforming our information ecosystem and politics, not just condemning our worst impulses.

“The road to restoring reason lies in reforming our information ecosystem and politics, not just condemning our worst impulses.”

While the above analysis suggests drivers of modern conspiracy theory contagion, cases like the Watergate scandal remind us that factual conspiracies do occasionally occur. We must therefore address this crisis while avoiding overzealous cynicism or dismissal of legitimate scrutiny. Achieving this nuance will require vigilance, compassion, and commitment to an evidence-based society where truth remains sacred.

References:

Brotherton, R., & Eser, S. (2015). Bored to fears: Boredom proneness, paranoia, and conspiracy theories. Personality and Individual Differences, 80, 1–5.

Eberhardt, J.L., & Gross, N. (2020). Is there a “fog of conspiracy”? Ambiguity and the representation of social networks in conspiratorial thinking Social Psychology Quarterly, 83(2), 180-197.

Einstein, K.L., & Glick, D.M. (2015). Do I think BLS data are BS? The consequences of conspiracy theories. Political Behavior, 37(3), 679-701.

Glaeser, E.L., (2005). The political economy of hatred. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120 (1), 45-86.

Mercier, H. & Sperber, D. (2017). The Enigma of Reason. Harvard University Press.

Miller, J.M., Saunders, K.L, & Farhart, C.E. (2016). Conspiracy endorsement as motivated reasoning: The moderating roles of political knowledge and trust. American Journal of Political Science, 60(4), 824-844.

O’Carroll, L. (2022, July 18). GB News host Neil Oliver shares image showing Bill Gates as Nazi. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jul/18/gb-news-neil-oliver-shares-image-bill-gates-nazi

Ofcom. (2023, January 26). Ofcom fines GB News £50,000 for COVID-19 breaches. https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2023/ofcom-finds-gb-news-in-breach-of-broadcasting-rules-for-a-second-time

Rosenblum N. & Muirhead R. (2019). A Lot of People Are Saying: The New Conspiracism and the Assault on Democracy. Princeton University Press.

Sullivan, J. (2021). Conspiracy theories and the Internet: Controlled demolition. Elon University Press.

Tuters, M., Jovanovic, P, & Hagen, S. (2018), Manipulation and computational propaganda in the United States 2016 election. Data & Society Research Institute.

Uscinski, J. E., & Parent, J. M. (2014). American conspiracy theories. Oxford University Press.

Uscinski, J. E., Klofstad, C., & Atkinson, M. D. (2020). What drives conspiratorial beliefs? The role of informational cues and predispositions. Political Research Quarterly, 69(1), 57-71.

Volkova, S., & Bell, E. (2017). Accountable algorithmic recommendation: Minding the gaps.
In ACM FAT* Conference on Fairness, Accountability and Transparency (pp. 1-4).

Walker, P. (2023, May 10). Andrew Bridgen becomes first Reclaim MP after expulsion from Tories. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/10/andrew-bridgen-becomes-first-reclaim-mp-after-expulsion-from-tories

Williams, Z. (2023, May 24). Conspiracy theories, Moggologues and zombie stats – all in a week’s work for GB News. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/may/24/conspiracy-theories-moggologues-and-zombie-stats-all-in-a-weeks-work-for-gb-news